Tasos Anastasatos (Eurobank) at the Capital Link: Greek Economy overperforms – 5 pillars which drives investment and growth
Dr Tasos Anastasatos, Chief Economist of the Eurobank Group
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Speaking at the 4th Annual Capital Link “Invest in Greece” Forum in New York, Dr Tasos Anastasatos,
Chief Economist of the Eurobank Group, stated:
Amid a deteriorating external environment, and with the Eurozone at the brink of stagflation, the Greek economy overperforms, as evident in 9M 2022 GDP figures; overperformance is expected to continue in 2023, albeit decelerating from this year, on the back of continued support from tourism, an ambitious RRF investment schedule, the beneficial impact of implemented structural reforms on productivity, and ample availability of liquidity by the Greek banking system.
On the conditions of adherence on the structural reform agenda and attainment of the 2023 Budget target of a 0.7% of GDP primary fiscal surplus next year, the goal to regain investment grade in 2023 is feasible. Risks include a further deterioration of the external environment, persistence of inflation and external imbalances.
An important factor for Greece’s longer-term prospects is the improving performance of investment: 2022 will be the first year after 2009 that gross fixed investment will exceed depreciations and the capital stock of the country will increase, while the composition of investment is also improving, incorporating a higher technological content; FDI is at a 20-year high and continues to increase.
A recent study by Eurobank proposes 5 Pillars of activities, which we expect to drive investment and growth in the years ahead, with the list being non-exhaustive:
- infrastructure, real estate and urban development;
- energy and green transition;
- digitization and ICT;
- tourism, hospitality and wellness; and
- manufacturing.
The study reviews tens of incipient investment projects in those 5 Pillars of total worth of €38.7bn. The study estimates that those projects, under plausible assumptions, can boost the Greek GDP by at least €47bn in a 10-year period (12.5ppts of GDP) and €88bn in a 20-year period, while at least 420,000 persons will be employed in activities related to them.
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