The implications stemming from the AUKUS alliance: USA’s pivot to Asia already encounters problems that raise questions to its allies

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By Roxani Kapantzaki

A new point of attrition is looming over the relations of the USA and China because of the AUKUS agreement, a strategic defense alliance forged by the US, the UK and Australia. The alliance is aiming at providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and deepening security cooperation in artificial intelligence, cyberwarfare and underwater technologies.[1]

However, the AUKUS agreement has triggered a wave of reactions since its announcement and has caused a geopolitical turmoil. Why did the USA initiate this coalition and what implications will it have for the countries involved?

To begin with, through the AUKUS alliance the USA attempts to maintain its military supremacy in Asia and deter China from gaining further influence in the Indo-Pacific Area.[2] Though the leaders of the trilateral pact did not mention China directly the motive behind this initiative is related to China’s expansionist policy in the South China Sea and its belligerence towards Taiwan.[3] The containment strategy against China, however, may have a grave impact on the Sino-American relations. Consequently, a new security dilemma emerges anticipating China’s response in the area of the South Pacific.

China applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) just a few hours after the announcement of the AUKUS pact. It is an agreement from which the Trump administration withdrew but it constitutes an opportunity for China to enhance “its economic weight and influence in the region”.[4] Moreover, according to Zhao Lijian, spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs the trilateral cooperation “undermined regional peace and stability, intensified the arms race and undermined international non-proliferation efforts”.[5] Nevertheless, while China itself already owns nuclear-powered submarines that carry nuclear missiles and increases the amount of its nuclear weapons, Australia is only going to use nuclear propulsion. This will mark a huge difference in range, speed, endurance and power supply compared to the conventional submarines.[6]

USA’s pivot to Asia already encounters problems that raise questions to its allies judging from the fact that France was astonished by the American initiative that amounted to the loss of profits due to the contract of Naval Group with Australia that the latter reneged on.[7] Despite the fact that “It is a historical truism that rising powers force diplomatic and military realignments”[8] and in this case China is the new rising power, France has to bear the burden of an economic misfortune.

Nonetheless, the French reaction was sharp as it recalled its ambassadors from Canberra and Washington for consultations, manifesting its discontent.[9] What is more, the French embassy in the USA cancelled an event where the 240^th anniversary of the Battle of the Capes would be celebrated along with Franco-American friendship.[10] In addition, the meeting between Florence Parly and the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace in London that was about to take place this week was also cancelled. Another strong indication of how France reacts to this pact is the way the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian described it: “a stab in the back” which is an “unacceptable behavior between allies and partners”.[11]

However, the USA could not do otherwise. Besides, the Indo-Pacific AUKUS pact constitutes an explanation for the withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan. These two regions mark a point of contention between the USA and China. The USA wants to abandon the area controlled by the Silk Road Economic Belt and focus on the Maritime Silk Road. On the one hand, Afghanistan will be a source of destabilization for China since the rise of Taliban in power may provoke volatility for China’s land-based projects in areas such as Central Asia, Pakistan and Xinjiang.[12] On the other hand, the Indo-Pacific Rim will be the major front for the Sino-American infrastructure war.[13] Thus, it is as if China will have to face challenges at two fronts and the Americans saw this as an opportunity to diminish its power.

As far as the EU is concerned, there is support and solidarity towards France as this is underlined by Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, who characterized the way France was treated as “not acceptable”[14] and requested for further clarifications. Charles Michel, the European Council President stressed out that the pact ‘was difficult to understand’.[15] In addition, Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, claimed that the AUKUS agreement came as a surprise. Besides, the EU and Australia were in the middle of negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement but it seems that Australia’s reliability is greatly doubted.[16] Certainly, the EU considers this issue quintessential as it put the dispute over the AUKUS pact at the top of its political agenda. [17]

Nonetheless, both France and the EU after their initial reaction take steps to participate in talks with the Americans. France first agreed to send its ambassadors back to Washington next week[18] which may be a way to highlight the importance of keeping the route of communication open. In addition, Josep Borrell met the American Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken. The EU and the USA will collaborate in order to deepen dialogue and cooperation between them.[19]

All in all, the AUKUS agreement was initiated by the USA in order to protect its vital interests in the area of the Indo-Pacific by containing China and diminishing its influence. However, this raised serious concerns on the part of France and the EU questioning their alliance with the USA. France was economically affected but it also felt betrayed by its allies, since it tried to broker an Indo-Pacific axis with the participation of India and Australia so as to contain the Chinese power in an area that is of paramount importance for its interests. Especially, the way the AUKUS agreement was announced bore the element of brutality, being deprived of consultation.[20] Though after a few days both France and the EU showed signs of reconciliation with the USA, one thing is for sure: the transatlantic relations will never be the same again.

In addition, China’s reaction should be taken into consideration as well since it is quite unpredictable but well-organized. Thus, it has a strategic plan and alternatives to alleviate the pressure caused by the AUKUS agreement. Furthermore, there is a shift in the geopolitical scenery in the Indo-Pacific and one can only hope that the tension emanating from the competition between the USA and China will not have detrimental repercussions.

[1] C. R Mohan, “India Welcomes AUKUS Pact as China Deterrent”, 16 Sep 2021, online at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/16/aukus-india-australia-uk-us-submarines/ (accessed 23/09/2021).

[2] S. Strangio, “What Does the New AUKUS Alliance Mean for Southeast Asia?” 17 Sep 2021, online at: https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/what-does-the-new-aukus-alliance-mean-for-southeast-asia/ (accessed 23/09/2021).

[3] J. Borger and D. Sabbagh, “US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China”, 16 Sep 2021, online at: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/15/australia-nuclear-powered-submarines-us-uk-security-partnership-aukus (accessed 23/09/2021).

[4] I. Hill, “AUKUS and the CPTPP: It’s all about China”,21 Sep 2021,  online at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/aukus-and-the-cptpp-it-s-all-about-china (accessed 23/09/2021).

[5] ANI News, “China greatly fears alliances such as AUKUS”, 20 Sep 2021, online at:  https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/china-greatly-fears-alliances-such-as-aukus20210920125203/ (accessed 23/09/2021).

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] J. Keiger, “The real reason France was excluded from Aukus”, 18 Sep 2021, online at: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-real-reason-france-was-excluded-from-aukus (accessed 23/09/2021).

[9] Ibid.

[10] Ibid.

[11] A. Therrien, “Aukus: France pulls out of UK defence talks amid row”, 21 Sep 2021, online at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58620220 (accessed 23/09/2021).

[12] A. Reisinezhad, “What AUKUS and Afghanistan Tell Us About the US Asia Strategy”, 21 Sep 2021, online at: https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/what-aukus-and-afghanistan-tell-us-about-the-us-asia-strategy/ (accessed 23/09/2021).

[13] Ibid.

[14] A. Rogal, “AUKUS submarine fallout rumbles on as EU backs France”, 21 Sep 2021, online at: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/aukus-submarine-fall-out-rumbles-on-as-eu-backs-france (accessed 23/09/2021).

[15] Ibid

[16] Ibid.

[17] S. Corbet, “US-French spat seems to simmer down after Biden-Macron call”, 23 Sep 2021, online at: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-europe-france-paris-australia-d9de6e1273e59f49c73ef5ca8474f474 (accessed 23/09/2021).

[18] Ibid.

[19] P. Stano and P. Hall Caballero, “United States: High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell met Secretary of State Antony Blinken”, 23 Sep 2021, online at: https://eeas.europa.eu/topics/security-defence-crisis-response/104510/united-states-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-met-secretary-state-antony_en (accessed 23/09/2021).

[20] V. Niquet and M. Peron-Doise, “AUKUS and Submarines: The Fallout for France”, online at: https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/aukus-and-submarines-the-fallout-for-france/ (accessed 23/09/2021).

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