ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
By Ilias Kouskouvelis
Perhaps there are many people from both sides of the dividing and occupation line that may want to see the reunification of the island… Perhaps, also, there are major powers that may think it is in their interest the illegal occupation to end…
Yet, despite the ongoing negotiations, it is not going to happen!
The reason is that Turkey does not want to. Or, if Turkey wants, it is not in the way that the free Cypriots are going to accept or the European Union would want to accept…
If one sets aside Erdogan’s domestic authoritarian behavior and its neo-ottoman ambitions abroad, Turkey is now stronger than in the past. It has a population of around 75 million and a military machine that keeps increasing its strength. At the same time, given the failure of its policy in Syria, the Kurdish uprising, and its frictions with Russia, Turkey “feels” threatened and hurt. This means that the context is not opportune for its government to withdraw its occupation forces from Cyprus. Because, no one should doubt that the key to any solution is precisely the withdrawal of the Turkish military from the island.
Besides, and assuming, for the sake of reasoning, that the domestic and international contexts were favorable, does Turkey want the reunification of the island?
The answer is no, for two reasons. The first is that Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots have shown interest for negotiations after the discovery of hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean by the Republic of Cyprus. And the second is the true thinking of the Turkish ruling elites. This is what Ahmet Davutoglu wrote in his book:
“It is not possible for a country that neglects Cyprus to have a decisive say in the global and regional politics … Even if there was not one Muslim Turk there, Turkey had to maintain a Cyprus issue. No country can stay indifferent toward such an island, located in the heart of its very own vital space … Turkey needs to see the strategic advantage which it obtained … in the 1970s, not as the component of a Cyprus defense policy, directed toward maintaining the status quo, but as one of the diplomatic main supports of an aggressive maritime strategy”.[1]
If there is a major change in Turkish politics or a major change in the international power structure, then and only then may Turkey change attitude towards its citizens, towards Cyprus, and the Europeans in general. Until then, Europeans and Americans should learn to deal with a state that is not as Europeanized or westernized as it wants to appear or some in the two continents would have wished it to be.
[1] Ahmet Davutoğlu, Stratejik Derinlik. Türkiye’nin Uluslararası Konumu (Istanbul: Küre Yayınları, 2001).
- Professor of International Relations, University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece – www.kouskouvelis.gr – t: @kouskouvelis