Before and after the Turkish invasion in Syria: Who was friends with Assad? Erdogan…
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Βy Dr Ilias Kouskouvelis*
The facts, before…
Who was friends with Assad and had family vacations with him? Erdogan!
Which country’s armed forces trained the Syrian? Turkey’s!
Which country instigated the Syrian “Arab Spring”, and welcomed the defectors of the Syrian army? Turkey!
Which country armed rebels inside Syria and which country, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, contributed to the Islamic State’s (ISIS) arming? Turkey!
Which country actively traded with the ISIS, enabled the free movement and the hospitalization of jihadists, and hampered Western operations against it? Again – you know it – Turkey!
Who resisted and who won the first battle against ISIS in Kobane, causing worldwide admiration, while Turkey did its best sa as the city falls in the hands of Islamists? The Kurds!
And now, on August 24, 2016, Turkey invaded Syria, with US support, the tolerance of Russia, but also, according to Kurdish sources, that of Iran and of Assad.
The questions, after…
Three basic questions arise, which I will attempt to answer.
1. Why Turkey invaded?
The average citizen easily and quickly replies: not to allow the two Kurdish controlled areas, south of its border, to unite and create a zone, which in large parts is communicating with Kurdish populations within Turkey. At the same time, Turkey notifies to the West its ability to exploit its limited geographical tactical advantage, and the tolerance the other players in Syria show to its behavior.
2. Why the US supported and Russia tolerated the invasion?
Apparently the US adopted a logic of appeasing Erdogan and of strengthening the fight against ISIS, to which Turkey has been finally and actively involved. However, at this point, two observations need to be made. First, that appeasement in international relations is a strategy with short-term results, but leading rather to strengthening of the appeased. Second, the US may put in danger one or rather the only, militarily capable and effective ally in Syria, the Kurds.
As for Russia, things are rather obvious. The first is that it creates a problem in the Western strategy, calculating that sooner or later the two US allies, Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, will collide. The second, however, is more important: that a NATO country, Turkey, invading Syria, repeats Russia’s behavior in the Crimea. How easily will one accuse now Russia for violating international law in Crimea?
3. And from now on?
Turkey invaded Syria in order to stay! Until when? Until a solution is found for Syria, which will take under consideration its interests! Until then, however, Turkey will have to deal with the Kurdish attacks (which occurred the very next day), and with those of ISIS. And this, in combination with all other domestic issues (political, social and economic), will not make things easy at all for Mr Erdogan and his country!
- Professor of International Relations
University of Macedonia, Greece