Water Scarcity in Middle East and North Africa: A cause for instability and the major consequences
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
Τhe Middle East and North Africa region concern, mainly, the international opinion due to the turmoil resulting from the Arab Spring from 2011 onwards, the Syrian crisis and the ISIS. However, on the already existing issues water scarcity should be added in particular. This problem combined with the rising in demand for water resources due to the rapid population outbreak risks new future conflicts, especially for riparian states.
In particular, water demand will be increased sharply by 2035. Water plays a key role in various sectors such as agriculture, economy and health. The MENA zone beyond the thorny issues in the domestic political scene has to cope with a potential emerging water crisis. Areas such as the Nile, the Tiger and the Euphrates as well as the Arabian peninsula pose potential risks for future conflicts. So, which consequences could be emerged and further disrupt Middle East and North Africa?
- Water scarcity: The biggest problem in MENA
MENA, even though represents approximately 7% of the world’s population, covers only 1.5% of the world’s renewable water resources. This scarcity is caused by arid conditions, low rainfall and high levels of evaporation, leading to limited naturally available water resources. Considering the 2% population growth almost per year, faster than any other region in the world, the problems will be visible in the upcoming future. It is worth noting that by 2011 60% of water sources have been lost. In addition, water conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next 25 years, endangering both economic growth and stability in the region.
MENA countries cannot sustainably meet their current water demand. With population growth and increased demand, water availability per capita is expected to be halved by 2050. More than 60% of the population has little or no access to drinkable water and over 70% of the region’s GDP is exposed to high or very high water stress.
Within this context, the water scarcity has emerged as crucial point in MENA region given that many countries in the area dependent on water resources that lie beyond their borders. There are numerous examples that could describe the existing situation. Nile affects Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan, Tigris and Euphrates are of major importance for Syria and Iraq and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen have been plaguing from dry climate and limited water resources.
- Which could be the major consequences from water scarcity in MENA?
The current situation is particularly critical for the destabilization of the area, but the gradual reduction of water resources in the MENA zone should not be underestimated. The consequences of the water scarcity in the MENA region could cause further instability in the upcoming future. Some of the major consequences emerged from this could be the following:
- Military deployment and upcoming conflicts
A scenario that could emerge through the water scarcity in Middle East and North Africa is a possible military deployment from the countries which shared waters that are close in their borders. Water is vital part in daily life of people, while it is the most important tool for economic development.
The countries in Middle East such as Egypt, Ethiopia based their GDP in agriculture sector, especially agriculture in Ethiopia accounts for 46,3% of GDP. It is obvious that the water resources are totally correlated with the economy of each country and this affects directly the national security. Within this framework, military deployment could happen from countries that face water scarcity in the upcoming future in the disputed water areas in order to secure their interests and their access in water resources.
therefore it is totally correlated with the national security as it is connected with the economy sector in different areas. Though water scarcity may not be a determinant trigger of conflict, it can compound other underlying factors to spark tense relations.
- Food insecurity, poverty and urbanization
Water scarcity could lead to a vicious cycle as food insecurity and poverty are totally interlinked. Water is the main tool for the agricultural production, which in Middle East and North Africa is very common ingredient. However, the water shortages affects negatively the agricultural production and this will have repercussion to the rural areas of the MENA region, where more than 40% of population lives there. The lack of water could increase the food insecurity, especially in areas that poverty is high. For example the poverty rate in Sudan, which has limited water resources, is almost 80%. It should be noticed also that 10% of the population in MENA region is undernourished and this could be increased if water scarcity continues to deteriorate the food production. Consequently, water scarcity is directly connected with the poverty and food insecurity in the region.
- Water scarcity affects health and education access
The life conditions could be worsened in MENA region as the impact of limited water resources exacerbates the existing situation also in health and education. Despite the fact that the relation between water and health or education is not obvious, water affects to a considerable extent either the access or the level in education or health. Water scarcity, health and education cause also a vicious cycle which affects negatively the life conditions of people in MENA region. Specifically, people in these countries are forced to drink low quality water from flowing streams, many of which are contaminated ,diseases such as Malaria could easily be transmitted through this. The limited access on water could also caused sanitation problems, which could spread infectious diseases.
Health diseases caused by water scarcity or low-quality water is possible to affect the access to education, creating a vicious cycle and strengthening poverty. On the one hand without clean water, students suffer and being thirsty they will not be motivated to learn, on the other hand the limited access to sanitation and the diseases caused by water such as diarrhea or malaria could impede their access to school. Countries like Yemen, Oman are more vulnerable to this situation due to their dry climate.
What should be done
The above mentioned consequences are interlinked and they could further deteriorate the MENA region, as water scarcity remains one of the biggest problems that have not been solved. The compound of military deployment in disputed areas and the consequences on poverty, education and health could trigger new turmoils. The countries which face those problems should pay attention to this phenomenon promptly and to cooperate on how they can benefit from the disputed areas.
Moreover, water scarcity consequences on poverty, education, health are of major importance. Investments and social protection measures are necessary in order to help people ameliorate their life conditions, as the poor who live in rural areas are the most vulnerable to this phenomenon. Tailor-made policies on how children could have access on education, how food security could be stabilized and improved sanitation are fundamental so as the consequences from water scarcity to be eliminated.
Actually, this period other important issues have gathered the interest of politicians and international community. Syrian civil war, refugee crisis, terrorism are indeed the most crucial issues of destabilization in MENA region. However, the water scarcity should not be neglected because their repercussions could exacerbate Middle East and North Africa and to create new problems of social unrest.
* George Koulouris- Political Scientist based in Athens, working as Consultant/Communication Assistant at a management & consulting firm. His interests focus on social inclusion, education, employment, minority and human rights. He holds a degree in International & European studies from University of Piraeus and a Master of Arts on Sustainable Development
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