First thoughts on Turkish elections
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
By Ilias Kouskouvelis
Erdogan is the clear winner in today’s Turkish elections, obtaining 49%. Yet, he did not reach the number of 330 (3/5 of 550) representatives required to amend the Constitution.
The other parties have shrunk. Voters have moved from the CHP and Nationalist MHP. The HDP (pro-Kurdish party) lost voters, but it resisted pressure and passed the limit of 10%. It is fourth in votes, yet as it is first in several electoral districts, it has won more representatives than the MHP; thus it becomes the third party in the Parliament.
It is obvious that terrorist attacks played in favor of Erdogan and his party. Perhaps also the visit of German Chancellor played a role in strengthening Erdogan’s international profile. Undoubtedly, the silencing of several opposition media has contributed in Erdogan’s victory.
The AKP will form a single-party government and will provide Turkey with a certain degree of stability. The opposition fears that this will increase Erdogan’s authoritarianism, with the freedom of press being its first victim. Moreover, now, Erdogan will increase his pressure and demands towards the European Union and the United States, asking more and more in exchange for Turkey’s assistance to the refugees, and his support in the fight against ISIS. Consequently, his position in the negotiations on Syria and Cyprus will be hardened.
Last but not least, in order to implement his grand design, to become a powerful President, Erdogan will need about 14-15 representatives. It is not impossible, yet difficult to get them from other parties. Before the elections, there was the impression that he could find them from the MHP. However, given the small number of representatives of the MHP, this appears rather difficult to happen.
- Ilias Kouskouvelis, Professor of International Relations, University of Macedonia, Greece