Out of a Sophistry and into a Trap for Cyprus
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
By Dr Aris Petasis*
The last report of the International Crisis Group (ICG) on Cyprus under the title “Divided Cyprus: coming to terms on an imperfect reality” makes interesting reading. The ICG is a steady supporter of Turkish positions on Cyprus and has all along been an enthusiastic backer of the Bizonal-Bicommunal Federal (BBF) solution for Cyprus as proposed in the Anan plan of 2004. High in the hierarchy of the ICG are people that know better where Cyprus is heading to and include former generals, politicians of international standing and powerful financiers. Now the ICG sees insurmountable obstacles in a BBF solution for Cyprus and seems to have had a change in heart considering that it now favors a two-state solution for Cyprus within the EU. The ICG now worries that: a.) many of the provisions of a BBF solution violate human rights and as such will be struck down by the EU courts and b.) Greek Cypriots (G/C) will reject yet again any BBF plan. Thus, we now see a fervent supporter of the racist BBF solution agreeing with the vast majority of “nationalist” Cypriots that rejected this plan for the same reasons the ICG is now putting forward.
Clearly we are now seeing a sea change not credited to the descent of the Holy Spirit or ICG’s need for atonement. Simply, the ICG now feels that the time is ripe for a two-state solution, first muted by those on G/C side that have a poor understanding of geopolitics and carelessly speak about a “loose federation,” which in effect is the preamble to a two-state solution. Those promoting a “loose federation” basically accept: a.) the partition of Cyprus, b.) separate state for each community and c.) a toothless “central federal government” that will allow Turkey to control the free areas of Cyprus and its energy reserves and cut out Greece and Russia and other friendly countries that traditionally support Cyprus. The ICG now agrees with the majority of Cypriots that the BBF solution is: a.) a sophistry, b.) does not bring Cyprus’ travails to an end and c.) puts G/C to the sword via a non-existent central government that gives Turkey free reign over the whole of Cyprus.
The ICG is now promoting a “clean” two-state solution for Cyprus which does away with the need for a central government that so frightens G/Cs. The ICG claims that the two-state solution addresses G/C fears and solves their problems once and for all. In the view of the ICG the new “solution” gives G/Cs an immiscible state, an Exclusive Economic Zone and clearly delineated boundaries. In effect it clears the G/C state from Turkish interference. The ICG suggests that the two new states become members of the EU which will guarantee human rights. All citizens will have freedom of movement within the two states and freedom of establishment. Thus, the residents of Paphos and the current Kyrenia refugees will be free to move within Cyprus and have access to their property (whatever they get from an agreed “solution.”) These freedoms will cease to exist once the T/C state decides to leave the EU. Cypriot citizenship will be replaced by a G/C and T/C citizenship.
We are now looking into a new reality considering that it is the pro-Turkish international political architects that reject the BBF and not some Cypriot “nationalists!” The ICG reject the BBF because this “solution” fails to pass the test when scrutinized by an independent European judiciary. The new ICG position exposes the naïveté of all those that for 40 years have been promoting a sophistry as a solution that public opinion and common sense rejected all along. The two-state solution is currently on the table under the guise of a “loose federation” whilst G/C negotiators continue to view the Cyprus problem as a legal impasse in need of a solution rather than as a major existentialist geopolitical issue.
Proponents of a two-state solution now need to answer these questions: a.) will a filthy Greek hand come forward to sign an agreement that would give Turkey: Kyrenia, Famagusta, Karpass, Soloi, Morphou, etc where Greeks have been living peacefully with others for over 3000 years and never succumbed to threats and slavery and never delivered their land to their occupiers, b.) what will happen if one day the T/C state decides in favour of union with Turkey and its 70million population; The ICG reassures us that the T/Cs and colonisers are not in favour of such a union. But, what happens when they change their minds? c.)What will happen to the two new states when the EU breaks up as it surely will do just like: CCCΡ (Soviet Union), al-Ittiḥād al-Arabī (Federation of Iraq-Jordan), al Jumhuriyyah al-Arabiyyah al-Muttahidah (Union between Egypt, Syria and North Yemen, etc? d.) What will happen to the G/C state when two million new colonisers flood the T/C state and gain citizenship and the right of movement within the G/C state? e.) What will happen to the infinite agreements signed between Turkey and the current illegitimate T/K “state” once the latter is recognized as a member of the E/U? Many chilling questions need to be answered. Hopefully we will have a chance to address these in the near future.
* Dr Aris Petasis is member of the Board of Trustees, Int’l Fund, Moscow State Aviation University